The Memo: Barr, Bolton, Kelly line up to condemn Trump over alleged crimes Russia sought to assassinate defector in Florida: reportĪre liberal social activists driving voters to the GOP? GOP leaders face down conservative threats to paralyze House again Judge orders Trump not to disclose evidence in documents caseĭon’t hide the truth about who made violent threats against Target John Durham to testify on Capitol Hill after scathing reportīiden calls Tuberville hold on military nominations ‘bizarre’ Hutchinson warns Republicans to ‘back off’ allegations DOJ has been. Newsom gives political boost to Biden in California Pence on Trump: I don’t know why other GOP 2024 candidates ‘presume the. Trump rips Quinnipiac, Fox News over poll Trump’s attacks on FBI, DOJ create Senate GOP fault line Nearly 15,000 sign petition to ban Donald Trump Jr. Trump, Fox’s Bret Baier spar over former president’s 2020 election claimsīrit Hume: Trump defense of taking documents ‘incoherent’ Trump defends keeping classified docs in contentious exchange with Fox’s Baier GOP voters in 2024 are unlikely to nominate a candidate who can match Bush’s 2004 achievement, which will require a major realignment and rebranding. Bush has ironically become an outcast in a Trump-dominated party. Nearly 20 years after he became the last Republican to win the popular and electoral votes, George W.
The Republican Party faces a crisis due to its shrinking white voter base unless it makes commensurate gains among the growing non-white electorate, which totaled 33 percent of voters in 2020 and which Biden won 71 to 26 percent over Trump. ‘Nightmare’ court decision upholds the right to be heard before a real courtīiden breaks with precedent by giving up some authority Then in 2020, those three states reverted to blue when Biden won with similarly close margins as Trump in 2016. Trump, who lost the popular vote in 2016, was elected president because he busted through the triple blue wall by winning an extra 77,744 votes spread across Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin - earning 46 electoral votes. In 2004, Bush lost Pennsylvania (21), Michigan (17) and Wisconsin (10), then totaling 48 electoral votes, but he had enough of an electoral cushion to reach 270 without the trio. That is a desperate and expensive situation involving 44 electoral votes and the White House at stake. Republicans losing popular and electoral votes in states once considered safe will force the party into a 270-vote math fight where the electoral-rich “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania (19), Wisconsin (10) and Michigan (15) become “must-win” for Republicans. Then in 2020, Trump and Republicans were stunned when Biden managed a 0.2 percentage point win, earning 16 new blue electoral votes, and the fallout continues in court. In 2004, Bush conquered Georgia with a 16.6 percentage point blowout, while Trump won by a respectable 5.2 points in 2016. Its newly acquired battleground status illustrates the Republican Party’s vulnerability. Georgia in 2024 will garner even more money and media attention. In 2004, Bush won Virginia by a safe 8.2 percentage point margin, but in 2020 Biden won by an even safer 10.1 points. GOP presidential candidates dream about turning back the clock but wake up to face this daunting data: Where does the Republican Party go to replace those 34 electoral votes? Good question. Subsequently, four states totaling 32 electoral votes that contributed to Bush topping 270 in 2004 have since become GOP Electoral College “dropouts.” Starting in 2008, every Democratic presidential ticket has won the following states (with their 2024 electoral votes in parentheses): Virginia (13), Colorado (10), Nevada (6) and New Mexico (5). Bush won the popular vote 50.7 to 48.3 percent and the Electoral College vote 286 to 251. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in a demure, respectable campaign by today’s standards. To understand how this forthcoming non-celebratory 20th anniversary of continuous political loss manifested itself, let’s begin with notable 2004 state voting data and compare it to 2020 state results.īut first, the basic facts: Incumbent President George W. Moreover, the demeaning label “illegitimate president” can haunt a commander in chief who wins without the popular vote.
In 2016, Donald Trump was elected president by winning only the Electoral College - a political fluke that he did not repeat in 2020.
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